It all comes down to Alaska

Don’t worry, this isn’t a Nate Silver prediction. Though, it’s possible that control of the Senate comes down to the contentious race in Alaska. Instead, I’m interested in what the race in Alaska says about the midterms as a whole. That’s right, this week’s newsletter is all about Alaska (sorry, Haley Stevens).

I love Alaska. Back in ye olde days of covid lockdown, I made several TikToks about the state, including how some vaccines were delivered by “snowmachines” (not snowmobiles as many Alaskans dutifully and furiously informed me).

At the Post, and now at LNI, editor Lauren Saks and I have joked about going to Alaska to cover the election. Or to see the sled dogs. Or both. It’s an unbelievable state, unlike any other part of the United States. Around 60% of voters there aren’t registered with any political party. The state is more than twice the size of Texas yet the population remains so small, they still only need one U.S. representative (Mary Peltola (D-AK), who you’ll read about in a moment, used to hold that seat). And best of all? The state is apparently poison ivy-free!

Alaska is also the center of what some Democratic detractors are calling a “manufactured October Surprise” by The New York Times. If you’re not familiar with the story, here’s what happened.

Earlier this year, Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher living in the Alaskan panhandle in a town only accessible by boat or plane, joined the U.S. Senate race. There was only one problem. The incumbent in Alaska was also named Dan Sullivan (R-AK).

For the rest of this newsletter, newcomer Dan J. Sullivan will be referred to as New Dan. The sitting senator, Dan S. Sullivan, will be referred to as Incumbent Dan.

Alaska has been down this road before. In 2014, Incumbent Dan ran for Senate the same year Dan A. Sullivan, then mayor of Anchorage, ran for lieutenant governor.

Earlier this year, Mayor Dan chose to endorse Incumbent Dan in the 2026 race, which led to amazing headlines like this one:

There are four total candidates for Senate in Alaska this midterm election. Three are registered Republicans: Incumbent Dan, New Dan and Gerald Heikes. The fourth is Mary Peltola (D). Alaska’s way of voting, which is also a measure being challenged on the ballot this year, allows for multiple people of the same party to run. This means, arguably, that Incumbent Dan is losing votes to Heikes and New Dan.

Democrats in Alaska prepared for this, exiting the race if they weren’t the top choice. David Leslie, a progressive who finished fourth, dropped out. A similar thing happened in the House race, when Democrat Matt Schultz dropped out of the race in July and threw his support to independent candidate Bill Hill.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Tom Begich dropped out and endorsed Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Republican Bernadette Wilson urged the other two Republicans to drop out, but they refused.

Many speculated that New Dan is merely there to spoil Incumbent Dan’s chances, allowing for a rare blue victory in Alaska. But New Dan stood his ground, saying this was his choice, and his alone, as Incumbent Dan grew frustrated and pushed back.

This summer, when Alaska’s Supreme Court ruled New Dan’s bid for Senator was perfectly legal and that he could remain on the ballot, it seemed like the drama was mostly over. Early Alaskan voters have already seen the new ballots, which clearly mark the difference between the two Dans.

But the news blizzard had only just begun. First, President Trump’s Justice Department filed a lawsuit, asking a court to block certification if Incumbent Dan loses, pending an investigation into whether voters confused the two Dans. Republican officials in Alaska asked a federal judge to dismiss this suit, which she did on Sunday. The Justice Department says it will appeal.

Enter: The New York Times.

On Wednesday, they dropped this well-sourced story, which outlines how Peltola’s campaign sought out Dan Sullivans and independents across Alaska, urging them to run, in a thinly-veiled attempt to stack the ballot against Incumbent Dan. This kind of behavior, while regularly frowned upon by Americans of whichever political party is at the receiving end of it, is not illegal. Republicans also participated in ballot stacking in 2024, when they actively promoted a Democratic candidate who was imprisoned in New York at the time. In fact, Republicans do this all the time, everywhere, paying for ads to promote third-party candidates who could spoil an election for Democrats.

Naturally, the online discourse since has been … exhausting. As someone who has formed a parasocial relationship with Alaska over the last six years, I feel for the Alaskans putting up with this circus. As was the case when a Washington Post TikToker misidentified their snowmachines as snowmobiles, they’re seeing a lot of big city reporters swooping into their state like they know everything about it.

I’ll also have a video out late Monday summarizing the drama in Alaska. I hope you’ll watch it. And if you follow us on one platform, consider following us on the others! We’re on YouTube, TikTok, Reels and even Facebook. That’s right! Your parents are watching us too!

Okay, so what should we make of the latest Alaskan drama? I’ve got some thoughts …

In short, yes.

In long-form, yes, but with caveats, emphasizing that:

That said, those clarifications do exist throughout the article.

Finally, in song-form, I would probably sing ‘In the End’ (it doesn’t even matter) by Linkin Park.

A decade ago, this may have been a bigger issue — think James Comey deciding to reopen the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton for using a private email server weeks before the 2016 election. People were understandably frustrated and arguably, that nothingburger of an investigation convinced a critical number of voters to go for Trump.

But this isn’t 2016. This is 2026. Now-President Trump is a known entity facing his biggest opponent yet: his own actions that led to higher grocery and gas prices.

A lot of the hand-wringing over this story is from people outside of Alaska who believe it will affect the Alaskan election, especially as Trump has seized the moment, blowing up his Truth Social with lengthy calls for Peltola’s prosecution (it’s always projection with this guy!). Which brings me to my next point …

If you read the online reaction of the actual people in Alaska, they’re completely unaffected by all of this. They watched Republicans push a prisoner on them in the 2024 election. Based on even the most recent polling, their minds have been made up for a month — Peltola consistently polls ahead of Sullivan.

I feel the same way about Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan’s Senate race on Sunday. Yeah, it’s a wild story. But is anyone in Michigan really going to be swayed by this stunt, just two days before the election? They’ve been living in this circus for months.

In the meantime, the rest of America has descended on Alaska in our suburban snowmachines, trying to make sense of a political climate that long hardened underneath the snow.

In reality, Alaskans have already been living in the Dan Sullivan Show for months. Speaking of …

Just a quick break to say that two Dan Sullivans on the ballot is objectively funny. Regardless of your party or beliefs, the whole thing really tickles a part of my brain. If this election season, and generally the news cycle, weren’t so bonkers, I would’ve spent far more time on the Dan Sullivan of it all.

This seems like as good a time as any to test out the poll feature on beehiiv:

As the Trump administration threatens to push their lawsuit, despite pushback from Republicans within Alaska, it’s become clear what these midterms are really about: the states.

This weird 250-year-old experiment, that strung a bunch of colonies together and gave them the power to oversee elections is about to get perhaps its biggest stress-test ever: a wannabe-dictator in the Oval Office who has a history of attempting to overturn fair elections.

Right now, I am cautiously optimistic. Not just because of the Republicans pushing back in Alaska, but because of that lil U.S. Constitution and its stubborn rules. Sunday’s dismissal of the Department of Justice lawsuit reflects that.

And there are stories of a surprisingly well-organized Democratic party across the country, which is preparing for every possible outcome, mobilizing against false claims that Trump will almost certainly make. This election is a referendum on Trump 2.0, yes. But it’s also about the power of the states in the United States. So, when I say I’m going all in on Alaska, I mean I’m going all in on the power of the states, and by extension, the people.

I’ll be busting my butt all week long on election coverage. I hope you’ll watch as I descend, once again, into election madness. Send me your thoughts on Alaska and the election by replying to this email or starting a new one at [email protected].

Check out our latest What’s Your Source? episode, which was made in collaboration with 50×50: Science Across America. We’re in good company in the Midwest group, all featured in this playlist.

For our contribution, we finally got to the bottom of potholes, and why there are supposedly over 50 million in the world (and a whole lot in Missouri).